derby.node44

sharp picks · 2026 oaks & derby
Oaks Day, Friday May 1 Race 4 Md Sp Wt
7.0f · Dirt · $120,000 · 13 entries · 2E / 1EP / 2P / 1S moderate pace
Odds source: BRIS MORNING LINE · pre-wagering — site falls back to morning line
tickets below scale to your budget

Sharp menu

CONSERVATIVE $47
WIN $35 on #9 LEXI V. @ 15/1
→ pays $560 (profit $525) if right
model: 12.7% · market: 6.2% · edge: +103%
WIN $12 on #10 ROSE OF SAN ANTONE @ 20/1
→ pays $252 (profit $240) if right
model: 9.3% · market: 4.8% · edge: +95%
Strongest overlay only. No exotics. Lowest variance — small consistent wins if model right.
BALANCED $50
WIN $38 on #9 LEXI V. @ 15/1
→ pays $608 (profit $570) if right
model: 12.7% · market: 6.2% · edge: +103%
EXACTA BOX $12 $2 box of 1/9/10
HEDGE BOOK / LEXI V. / ROSE OF SAN ANTONE
Win bet on best overlay + scaled exacta box of top 3 contenders. Captures the obvious and gives upside if a chalky exacta hits.
SWING $48
EXACTA BOX $12 $1 box of 10/12/1/9
ROSE OF SAN ANTONE / ZENGRAYA / HEDGE BOOK / LEXI V.
Wider box; includes a longshot for chaos potential
WIN $36 on #10 ROSE OF SAN ANTONE @ 20/1
→ pays $756 (profit $720) if right
model: 9.3% · market: 4.8% · edge: +95%
Longshot value play — model has 9.3% vs market 4.8%
4-horse exacta box including a value longshot + WIN bet on the best overlay longshot. Highest variance — many losers, but the wins pay big.
DEGEN $50
TRIFECTA BOX $12 $0.5 box of 1/10/12/9
HEDGE BOOK / ROSE OF SAN ANTONE / ZENGRAYA / LEXI V.
Top contender + 3 highest-edge horses
WIN $38 on #10 ROSE OF SAN ANTONE @ 20/1
→ pays $798 (profit $760) if right
model: 9.3% · market: 4.8% · edge: +95%
Biggest priced overlay — model 9.3% vs market 4.8%
Trifecta box of 4 (top contender + chaos picks) + biggest-priced WIN. Bigger budgets add a $0.10 superfecta box. Long odds, low hit rate, but a hit pays the rent.

Contenders

# Horse Style Model Fair Live ML Edge Notes
1 HEDGE BOOK P
27.2%
5/2
27.2%
 —
7/2
22.2%
 +23% improving
9 LEXI V. P4
12.7%
7/1
12.7%
 —
15/1
6.2%
 +103% improving
10 ROSE OF SAN ANTONE NA4
9.3%
10/1
9.3%
 —
20/1
4.8%
 +95% strong works
13 TRAMUNTANA E4
9.2%
10/1
9.2%
 —
8/1
11.1%
 -17%
12 ZENGRAYA S4
7.6%
12/1
7.6%
 —
15/1
6.2%
 +22%
8 SERENA'S SURPRISE E6
7.0%
12/1
7.0%
 —
12/1
7.7%
 -8%
7 BELLA ELLA NA
6.8%
15/1
6.8%
 —
15/1
6.2%
 +9%
3 BATTIS GROVE NA
3.9%
25/1
3.9%
 —
10/1
9.1%
 -57% data-deficient (foreign?)
6 PASSERINE NA
3.8%
25/1
3.8%
 —
8/1
11.1%
 -66% data-deficient (foreign?)
4 COUPLET NA
3.7%
25/1
3.7%
 —
6/1
14.3%
 -74% data-deficient (foreign?), strong works
5 GERBER DAISY E/P4
3.4%
30/1
3.4%
 —
15/1
6.2%
 -46% regressing
11 TAMMY'S KISS NA
3.2%
30/1
3.2%
 —
9/2
18.2%
 -82% data-deficient (foreign?)
2 POWER TO GLORY NA
2.1%
50/1
2.1%
 —
20/1
4.8%
 -57% data-deficient (foreign?)