derby.node44

sharp picks · 2026 oaks & derby
Oaks Day, Friday May 1 Race 5 Md Sp Wt
8.0f · Turf · $120,000 · 16 entries · 4E / 1EP / 3P / 6S moderate pace
Odds source: BRIS MORNING LINE · pre-wagering — site falls back to morning line
tickets below scale to your budget

Sharp menu

CONSERVATIVE $47
WIN $35 on #3 GRANDE SORPRESO @ 30/1
→ pays $1,085 (profit $1,050) if right
model: 6.5% · market: 3.2% · edge: +101%
WIN $12 on #15 APOLLO'S GLORY @ 30/1
→ pays $372 (profit $360) if right
model: 6.0% · market: 3.2% · edge: +86%
Strongest overlay only. No exotics. Lowest variance — small consistent wins if model right.
BALANCED $50
WIN $38 on #3 GRANDE SORPRESO @ 30/1
→ pays $1,178 (profit $1,140) if right
model: 6.5% · market: 3.2% · edge: +101%
EXACTA BOX $12 $2 box of 5/6/10
FLICK / EXECUTIVE / PREPPED
Win bet on best overlay + scaled exacta box of top 3 contenders. Captures the obvious and gives upside if a chalky exacta hits.
SWING $48
EXACTA BOX $12 $1 box of 3/15/5/6
GRANDE SORPRESO / APOLLO'S GLORY / FLICK / EXECUTIVE
Wider box; includes a longshot for chaos potential
WIN $36 on #3 GRANDE SORPRESO @ 30/1
→ pays $1,116 (profit $1,080) if right
model: 6.5% · market: 3.2% · edge: +101%
Longshot value play — model has 6.5% vs market 3.2%
4-horse exacta box including a value longshot + WIN bet on the best overlay longshot. Highest variance — many losers, but the wins pay big.
DEGEN $50
TRIFECTA BOX $12 $0.5 box of 5/3/15/14
FLICK / GRANDE SORPRESO / APOLLO'S GLORY / DROP SHOT
Top contender + 3 highest-edge horses
WIN $38 on #3 GRANDE SORPRESO @ 30/1
→ pays $1,178 (profit $1,140) if right
model: 6.5% · market: 3.2% · edge: +101%
Biggest priced overlay — model 6.5% vs market 3.2%
Trifecta box of 4 (top contender + chaos picks) + biggest-priced WIN. Bigger budgets add a $0.10 superfecta box. Long odds, low hit rate, but a hit pays the rent.

Contenders

# Horse Style Model Fair Live ML Edge Notes
5 FLICK S5
10.3%
9/1
10.3%
 —
10/1
9.1%
 +13% improving
6 EXECUTIVE P3
9.6%
9/1
9.6%
 —
4/1
20.0%
 -52% regressing
10 PREPPED S3
9.5%
9/1
9.5%
 —
3/1
25.0%
 -62%
14 DROP SHOT S2
8.2%
12/1
8.2%
 —
20/1
4.8%
 +71% improving
11 ROYAL GUARD S2
7.4%
12/1
7.4%
 —
5/1
16.7%
 -56%
4 POWELL RIVER E6
6.8%
15/1
6.8%
 —
8/1
11.1%
 -39%
3 GRANDE SORPRESO NA5
6.5%
15/1
6.5%
 —
30/1
3.2%
 +101% regressing
15 APOLLO'S GLORY E3
6.0%
15/1
6.0%
 —
30/1
3.2%
 +86% improving
13 TIMAYYYY E4
5.7%
15/1
5.7%
 —
8/1
11.1%
 -48%
1 BRIDGESONG S2
5.7%
15/1
5.7%
 —
8/1
11.1%
 -48%
7 CULTURE WAR E/P5
5.1%
20/1
5.1%
 —
20/1
4.8%
 +7%
8 WAR AND MAJESTY P2
4.9%
20/1
4.9%
 —
8/1
11.1%
 -56% improving
2 CLARK'S CORNER S
4.7%
20/1
4.7%
 —
12/1
7.7%
 -39%
9 CASH BONUS E6
4.7%
20/1
4.7%
 —
15/1
6.2%
 -25%
16 WEMBLEY AVENUE P3
3.8%
25/1
3.8%
 —
15/1
6.2%
 -40% improving
12 HILL COUNTRY NA4
1.3%
75/1
1.3%
 —
50/1
2.0%
 -34%