derby.node44

sharp picks · 2026 oaks & derby
Oaks Day, Friday May 1 Race 3 OClm 125000n1x
8.5f · Dirt · $127,000 · 11 entries · 2E / 5EP / 2P / 2S hot pace expected
Odds source: BRIS MORNING LINE · pre-wagering — site falls back to morning line
tickets below scale to your budget

Sharp menu

CONSERVATIVE $48
WIN $48 on #11 FEISTY RED HEAD @ 20/1
→ pays $1,008 (profit $960) if right
model: 6.5% · market: 4.8% · edge: +37%
Strongest overlay only. No exotics. Lowest variance — small consistent wins if model right.
BALANCED $50
WIN $38 on #11 FEISTY RED HEAD @ 20/1
→ pays $798 (profit $760) if right
model: 6.5% · market: 4.8% · edge: +37%
EXACTA BOX $12 $2 box of 10/7/6
STAR ACTRESS / BETTY'S PEARL / MAXIMUM OFFER
Win bet on best overlay + scaled exacta box of top 3 contenders. Captures the obvious and gives upside if a chalky exacta hits.
SWING $48
EXACTA BOX $12 $1 box of 11/10/7/6
FEISTY RED HEAD / STAR ACTRESS / BETTY'S PEARL / MAXIMUM OFFER
Wider box; includes a longshot for chaos potential
WIN $36 on #11 FEISTY RED HEAD @ 20/1
→ pays $756 (profit $720) if right
model: 6.5% · market: 4.8% · edge: +37%
Longshot value play — model has 6.5% vs market 4.8%
4-horse exacta box including a value longshot + WIN bet on the best overlay longshot. Highest variance — many losers, but the wins pay big.
DEGEN $50
TRIFECTA BOX $12 $0.5 box of 10/11/7/6
STAR ACTRESS / FEISTY RED HEAD / BETTY'S PEARL / MAXIMUM OFFER
Top contender + 3 highest-edge horses
WIN $38 on #11 FEISTY RED HEAD @ 20/1
→ pays $798 (profit $760) if right
model: 6.5% · market: 4.8% · edge: +37%
Biggest priced overlay — model 6.5% vs market 4.8%
Trifecta box of 4 (top contender + chaos picks) + biggest-priced WIN. Bigger budgets add a $0.10 superfecta box. Long odds, low hit rate, but a hit pays the rent.

Contenders

# Horse Style Model Fair Live ML Edge Notes
10 STAR ACTRESS E/P5
20.1%
4/1
20.1%
 —
4/1
20.0%
 +1%
7 BETTY'S PEARL P5
15.2%
6/1
15.2%
 —
9/2
18.2%
 -16% improving
6 MAXIMUM OFFER E/P8
12.0%
7/1
12.0%
 —
6/1
14.3%
 -16% regressing
9 LEINANI P5
11.0%
8/1
11.0%
 —
5/1
16.7%
 -34% improving
2 MEASURE S
7.4%
12/1
7.4%
 —
6/1
14.3%
 -48% improving
5 JOYFUL JUSTICE E5
7.3%
12/1
7.3%
 —
6/1
14.3%
 -49% pace bad, improving, strong works
4 MISS CALL E/P4
6.8%
15/1
6.8%
 —
10/1
9.1%
 -25% improving
11 FEISTY RED HEAD S3
6.5%
15/1
6.5%
 —
20/1
4.8%
 +37% improving
3 KRISSYS STAR E/P5
5.5%
15/1
5.5%
 —
15/1
6.2%
 -12% improving
1 MAKING DAISYS E4
5.1%
20/1
5.1%
 —
15/1
6.2%
 -19% pace bad, improving
8 UR DESIRE E/P2
3.0%
30/1
3.0%
 —
20/1
4.8%
 -36% improving