derby.node44

sharp picks · 2026 oaks & derby
Oaks Day, Friday May 1 Race 2 OClm 80000n2x
8.0f · Dirt · $134,000 · 9 entries · 2E / 4EP / 2P / 1S hot pace expected
Odds source: BRIS MORNING LINE · pre-wagering — site falls back to morning line
tickets below scale to your budget

Sharp menu

CONSERVATIVE $45
WIN $45 on #2 DECADENT @ 8/1
→ pays $405 (profit $360) if right
model: 12.4% · market: 11.1% · edge: +12%
Strongest overlay only. No exotics. Lowest variance — small consistent wins if model right.
BALANCED $50
WIN $38 on #2 DECADENT @ 8/1
→ pays $342 (profit $304) if right
model: 12.4% · market: 11.1% · edge: +12%
EXACTA BOX $12 $2 box of 9/3/2
FIVE A SIDE / CHOPSTICKS / DECADENT
Win bet on best overlay + scaled exacta box of top 3 contenders. Captures the obvious and gives upside if a chalky exacta hits.
SWING $48
EXACTA BOX $12 $1 box of 9/3/2/6
FIVE A SIDE / CHOPSTICKS / DECADENT / ANNA'S PROMISE
WIN $36 on #9 FIVE A SIDE @ 3/1
→ pays $144 (profit $108) if right
model: 24.2% · market: 25.0% · edge: -3%
4-horse exacta box including a value longshot + WIN bet on the best overlay longshot. Highest variance — many losers, but the wins pay big.
DEGEN $50
TRIFECTA BOX $12 $0.5 box of 9/2/6/3
FIVE A SIDE / DECADENT / ANNA'S PROMISE / CHOPSTICKS
Top contender + 3 highest-edge horses
WIN $38 on #8 CARMEL ROSE @ 30/1
→ pays $1,178 (profit $1,140) if right
model: 2.9% · market: 3.2% · edge: -9%
No clear-edge longshot — bombing the longest price
Trifecta box of 4 (top contender + chaos picks) + biggest-priced WIN. Bigger budgets add a $0.10 superfecta box. Long odds, low hit rate, but a hit pays the rent.

Contenders

# Horse Style Model Fair Live ML Edge Notes
9 FIVE A SIDE P3
24.2%
3/1
24.2%
 —
3/1
25.0%
 -3%
3 CHOPSTICKS P4
16.4%
5/1
16.4%
 —
9/2
18.2%
 -10% regressing
2 DECADENT S3
12.4%
7/1
12.4%
 —
8/1
11.1%
 +12% pace fits, improving
6 ANNA'S PROMISE E8
12.0%
7/1
12.0%
 —
8/1
11.1%
 +8% pace bad, improving
7 SUDDEN SWITCH E/P5
11.2%
8/1
11.2%
 —
7/2
22.2%
 -50% improving
5 QUANTUM BURST E/P8
9.1%
10/1
9.1%
 —
6/1
14.3%
 -36%
4 WHITE ROCKS E7
6.9%
12/1
6.9%
 —
10/1
9.1%
 -24% pace bad, regressing
1 AMALFI DRIVE E/P7
4.9%
20/1
4.9%
 —
6/1
14.3%
 -66% regressing
8 CARMEL ROSE E/P6
2.9%
30/1
2.9%
 —
30/1
3.2%
 -9%