derby.node44

sharp picks · 2026 oaks & derby
Oaks Day, Friday May 1 Race 1 Md Sp Wt
8.5f · Dirt · $120,000 · 7 entries · 2E / 0EP / 2P / 1S moderate pace
Odds source: BRIS MORNING LINE · pre-wagering — site falls back to morning line
tickets below scale to your budget

Sharp menu

CONSERVATIVE $47
WIN $35 on #3 SISTER JEAN @ 12/1
→ pays $455 (profit $420) if right
model: 12.1% · market: 7.7% · edge: +57%
WIN $12 on #4 HAYWINII @ 20/1
→ pays $252 (profit $240) if right
model: 7.3% · market: 4.8% · edge: +53%
Strongest overlay only. No exotics. Lowest variance — small consistent wins if model right.
BALANCED $50
WIN $38 on #3 SISTER JEAN @ 12/1
→ pays $494 (profit $456) if right
model: 12.1% · market: 7.7% · edge: +57%
EXACTA BOX $12 $2 box of 1/7/5
PHANTOM BLUE / EPISIST / MASS
Win bet on best overlay + scaled exacta box of top 3 contenders. Captures the obvious and gives upside if a chalky exacta hits.
SWING $48
EXACTA BOX $12 $1 box of 4/1/7/5
HAYWINII / PHANTOM BLUE / EPISIST / MASS
Wider box; includes a longshot for chaos potential
WIN $36 on #4 HAYWINII @ 20/1
→ pays $756 (profit $720) if right
model: 7.3% · market: 4.8% · edge: +53%
Longshot value play — model has 7.3% vs market 4.8%
4-horse exacta box including a value longshot + WIN bet on the best overlay longshot. Highest variance — many losers, but the wins pay big.
DEGEN $50
TRIFECTA BOX $12 $0.5 box of 1/4/3/5
PHANTOM BLUE / HAYWINII / SISTER JEAN / MASS
Top contender + 3 highest-edge horses
WIN $38 on #4 HAYWINII @ 20/1
→ pays $798 (profit $760) if right
model: 7.3% · market: 4.8% · edge: +53%
Biggest priced overlay — model 7.3% vs market 4.8%
Trifecta box of 4 (top contender + chaos picks) + biggest-priced WIN. Bigger budgets add a $0.10 superfecta box. Long odds, low hit rate, but a hit pays the rent.

Contenders

# Horse Style Model Fair Live ML Edge Notes
1 PHANTOM BLUE E6
30.4%
5/2
30.4%
 —
1/1.2
55.6%
 -45% strong works
7 EPISIST P3
17.4%
9/2
17.4%
 —
4/1
20.0%
 -13% improving, strong works
5 MASS E5
15.2%
6/1
15.2%
 —
8/1
11.1%
 +37% improving
6 SOARING HIGH NA6
12.1%
7/1
12.1%
 —
7/2
22.2%
 -46%
3 SISTER JEAN P2
12.1%
7/1
12.1%
 —
12/1
7.7%
 +57%
4 HAYWINII S4
7.3%
12/1
7.3%
 —
20/1
4.8%
 +53%
2 BUTTERFLY JASMINE NA
5.5%
15/1
5.5%
 —
15/1
6.2%
 -12% data-deficient (foreign?)